Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 21,396
2 New York 21,260
3 Arizona 20,698
4 New Jersey 20,216
5 Florida 17,674
6 Rhode Island 17,049
7 Massachusetts 16,586
8 District of Columbia 16,335
9 Mississippi 15,816
10 Alabama 14,646
11 South Carolina 14,574
12 Delaware 14,163
13 Connecticut 13,525
14 Maryland 13,354
15 Illinois 13,190
16 Georgia 13,102
17 Iowa 12,743
18 Texas 12,641
19 Nevada 12,583
20 Nebraska 12,141
21 Tennessee 12,029
22 Arkansas 11,679
23 Utah 11,128
24 California 10,693
25 North Carolina 10,033
26 Virginia 9,418
27 Idaho 9,174
28 South Dakota 9,130
29 Indiana 8,931
30 Minnesota 8,511
31 New Mexico 8,502
32 Pennsylvania 8,457
33 Michigan 8,400
34 Wisconsin 8,377
35 Kansas 8,367
36 Colorado 7,249
37 North Dakota 7,047
38 Oklahoma 6,899
39 Washington 6,755
40 Ohio 6,736
41 Missouri 6,265
42 Kentucky 5,633
43 New Hampshire 4,629
44 Puerto Rico 4,082
45 Wyoming 3,953
46 Oregon 3,659
47 Alaska 3,577
48 West Virginia 3,047
49 Maine 2,769
50 Montana 2,657
51 Vermont 2,189
52 Hawaii 997

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 548
2 Mississippi 496
3 Florida 458
4 South Carolina 327
5 Texas 327
6 Alabama 326
7 Arizona 321
8 Nevada 317
9 Tennessee 291
10 Idaho 267
11 California 262
12 Georgia 261
13 Arkansas 222
14 Kansas 219
15 Missouri 179
16 Oklahoma 171
17 North Carolina 167
18 Utah 162
19 Wisconsin 161
20 Alaska 155
21 North Dakota 152
22 Iowa 147
23 Nebraska 146
24 New Mexico 136
25 District of Columbia 126
26 Washington 124
27 Kentucky 117
28 Virginia 115
29 Maryland 112
30 Ohio 108
31 Indiana 106
32 Minnesota 103
33 Illinois 101
34 Puerto Rico 101
35 Montana 95
36 Delaware 93
37 Wyoming 93
38 Colorado 90
39 Rhode Island 84
40 West Virginia 77
41 Pennsylvania 75
42 Oregon 67
43 Michigan 65
44 South Dakota 64
45 Massachusetts 38
46 New York 35
47 Connecticut 30
48 New Jersey 30
49 New Hampshire 22
50 Hawaii 12
51 Maine 8
52 Vermont 8

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,768
2 New York 1,656
3 Connecticut 1,235
4 Massachusetts 1,228
5 Rhode Island 941
6 District of Columbia 821
7 Louisiana 789
8 Michigan 639
9 Illinois 595
10 Maryland 563
11 Pennsylvania 556
12 Delaware 541
13 Mississippi 478
14 Indiana 425
15 Arizona 408
16 Colorado 307
17 Georgia 307
18 New Hampshire 295
19 Minnesota 282
20 New Mexico 281
21 Alabama 278
22 Ohio 276
23 Iowa 257
24 South Carolina 249
25 Florida 248
26 Virginia 240
27 Nevada 228
28 California 203
29 Washington 201
30 Missouri 194
31 North Carolina 164
32 Nebraska 162
33 Kentucky 156
34 Texas 155
35 Wisconsin 150
36 South Dakota 134
37 North Dakota 131
38 Tennessee 128
39 Arkansas 125
40 Oklahoma 119
41 Kansas 111
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 87
44 Utah 81
45 Idaho 76
46 Oregon 64
47 Puerto Rico 57
48 West Virginia 56
49 Wyoming 43
50 Montana 39
51 Alaska 23
52 Hawaii 16

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 9
2 Louisiana 9
3 South Carolina 8
4 Mississippi 7
5 Nevada 6
6 Alabama 5
7 Florida 5
8 Texas 5
9 Georgia 4
10 New Mexico 3
11 Arkansas 2
12 California 2
13 Idaho 2
14 Indiana 2
15 Iowa 2
16 Missouri 2
17 North Carolina 2
18 Rhode Island 2
19 Tennessee 2
20 Colorado 1
21 Delaware 1
22 Illinois 1
23 Kansas 1
24 Maryland 1
25 Massachusetts 1
26 Montana 1
27 Nebraska 1
28 North Dakota 1
29 Ohio 1
30 Oklahoma 1
31 Pennsylvania 1
32 Utah 1
33 Wisconsin 1
34 Alaska 0
35 Connecticut 0
36 District of Columbia 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Kentucky 0
39 Maine 0
40 Michigan 0
41 Minnesota 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New Jersey 0
44 New York 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Virginia 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 137,185 1 99
Lake Tennessee 100,057 2 99
Lee Arkansas 97,889 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 93,728 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 89,704 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 26,541 115 96
Richland South Carolina 15,829 365 88
Orange California 9,996 800 74
York South Carolina 9,150 902 71
Pierce Washington 4,940 1557 50

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 2,915 5 99
Richland South Carolina 279 653 79
Davidson Tennessee 249 720 77
Orange California 164 954 69
Pierce Washington 134 1100 64
York South Carolina 60 1611 48

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons